Notable Forecast Changes, Short-Term Energy Outlook 06-19

Onyx Power and Gas Consulting continues with its weekly series providing the Short-Term Energy Outlook as of June 11, 2019.  This series of news articles should provide a complete insight on the current conditions of the energy…enjoy, check out archives and come back each week for additional information on how all sorts of energy sources impact our daily lives.

Notable Forecast Changes

  • EIA forecasts Brent crude oil prices will average $67 per barrel (b) in 2019, down about $3/b from last month’s STEO forecast. The lower 2019 price forecast largely reflects recent price declines in global crude oil prices, which lowered the starting point for EIA’s forecast, and uncertainty about global oil demand growth. Forecast global liquid fuels supply and consumption were both lowered by about 0.2-0.3 million barrels per day (b/d) for 2019 and for 2020. The lower global supply growth forecast is mostly the result of lower crude oil production growth in the United States because of lower expected oil prices and an expectation of increasing crude oil production declines in Venezuela. The reduction in global demand growth reflects both a revision to historical data that carries through to the forecast and lower oil consumption growth in 2019 because of reduction in forecast 2019 oil-weighted GDP growth among countries not part of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

Real Prices Viewer

Real Petroleum Prices are computed by dividing the nominal price in a given month by the ratio of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that month to the CPI in some “base” period. The Real Petroleum Prices spreadsheet and charts are updated every month so that the current month is the base period in the monthly price series. Consequently, all real prices are expressed in “current” dollars and any current month price may be compared directly with any past or projected real prices.

The professional consultants at Onyx Power & Gas Consulting are always ahead of the current issues that may affect energy consumption and pricing. Now is the time to partner with an Onyx professional consultant to discuss energy management and secure energy prices based on today’s stable pricing. Volatility in the energy markets makes it too precarious to take chances. Partner with Onyx Power & Gas in Making Energy Make a Difference!

Posted in Clean Energy, CO2, Community Improvement, Consulting, Crude Oil, Crude Oil Prices, Drilling, Electricity, Electricity Prices, Emmissions, Energy, Energy Consumption, Energy Deregulation, Energy Prices, Environment, Fuel, Fuels, Gas, Generation, Green Energy, Natural Gas, Natural Gas Prices, OECD, Oil, Press Releases, Services, Shale Gas, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

U.S. Economic Assumptions and Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Short-Term Energy Outlook 06-19

Onyx Power and Gas Consulting continues with its weekly series providing the Short-Term Energy Outlook as of June 11, 2019.  This series of news articles should provide a complete insight on the current conditions of the energy…enjoy, check out archives and come back each week for additional information on how all sorts of energy sources impact our daily lives.

U.S. Economic Assumptions and Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Recent Economic Indicators.

  • EIA used the May 2019 version of the IHS Markit macroeconomic model with EIA’s energy price forecasts as model inputs to develop the economic forecasts in STEO. Using the IHS Markit model, EIA forecasts real GDP to grow by 2.7% in 2019 and by 2.2% in 2020, compared with 2.9% growth in 2018.

Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions.

  • After rising by 2.7% in 2018, EIA forecasts that U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will decline by 2.0% in 2019 and by 0.9% in 2020. EIA expects U.S. CO2 emissions will fall in 2019 and in 2020 because its forecast assumes that temperatures will return to near normal, and because the forecast share of electricity generated from natural gas and renewables increases while the forecast share generated from coal, which produces more CO2 emissions, decreases. Energy-related CO2 emissions are sensitive to weather, economic growth, energy prices, and fuel mix.
U.S. carbon dioxide emissions growth

The professional consultants at Onyx Power & Gas Consulting are always ahead of the current issues that may affect energy consumption and pricing. Now is the time to partner with an Onyx professional consultant to discuss energy management and secure energy prices based on today’s stable pricing. Volatility in the energy markets makes it too precarious to take chances. Partner with Onyx Power & Gas in Making Energy Make a Difference!

Posted in Clean Energy, CO2, Community Improvement, Consulting, Crude Oil, Crude Oil Prices, Drilling, Electricity, Electricity Prices, Emmissions, Energy, Energy Consumption, Energy Deregulation, Energy Prices, Environment, Fuel, Fuels, Gas, Generation, Green Energy, Natural Gas, Natural Gas Prices, OECD, Oil, Press Releases, Services, Shale Gas, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Electricity, Short-Term Energy Outlook 06-19

Onyx Power and Gas Consulting continues with its weekly series providing the Short-Term Energy Outlook as of June 11, 2019.  This series of news articles should provide a complete insight on the current conditions of the energy…enjoy, check out archives and come back each week for additional information on how all sorts of energy sources impact our daily lives.

Electricity

  • EIA expects the share of U.S. total utility-scale electricity generation from natural gas-fired power plants to rise from 35% in 2018 to 37% in 2019 and to 38% in 2020. EIA forecasts that the share of generation from coal will average 24% in 2019 and 23% in 2020, down from 27% in 2018. The forecast nuclear share of generation falls from 20% in 2019 to 19% in 2020, reflecting the retirement of some nuclear reactors. Hydropower averages a 7% share of total generation in the forecast for 2019 and 2020, similar to 2018. Wind, solar, and other nonhydropower renewables together provided 10% of U.S. generation in 2018. EIA expects they will provide 11% in 2019 and 13% in 2020.
  • EIA forecasts that renewable fuels, including wind, solar, and hydropower, will collectively produce 18% of U.S. electricity in 2019 and almost 20% in 2020. EIA expects that annual generation from wind will surpass hydropower generation for the first time in 2019 to become the leading source of renewable electricity generation and maintain that position in 2020.
U.S. electricity consumption
U.S. electricity generation
U.S. renewable energy supply
U.S. electricity prices

The professional consultants at Onyx Power & Gas Consulting are always ahead of the current issues that may affect energy consumption and pricing. Now is the time to partner with an Onyx professional consultant to discuss energy management and secure energy prices based on today’s stable pricing. Volatility in the energy markets makes it too precarious to take chances. Partner with Onyx Power & Gas in Making Energy Make a Difference!

Posted in Clean Energy, CO2, Community Improvement, Consulting, Crude Oil, Crude Oil Prices, Drilling, Electricity, Electricity Prices, Emmissions, Energy, Energy Consumption, Energy Deregulation, Energy Prices, Environment, Fuel, Fuels, Gas, Generation, Green Energy, Natural Gas, Natural Gas Prices, OECD, Oil, Press Releases, Services, Shale Gas, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Coal, Short-Term Energy Outlook 06-19

Onyx Power and Gas Consulting continues with its weekly series providing the Short-Term Energy Outlook as of June 11, 2019.  This series of news articles should provide a complete insight on the current conditions of the energy…enjoy, check out archives and come back each week for additional information on how all sorts of energy sources impact our daily lives.

Coal

  • EIA forecasts that U.S. coal consumption, which reached a 39-year low of 687 million metric tons (MMst) in 2018, will fall to 602 MMst in 2019 and to 567 MMst in 2020. The falling consumption reflects lower demand for coal in the electric power sector.
U.S. coal production
U.S. electric power sector coal stocks
U.S. coal consumption

The professional consultants at Onyx Power & Gas Consulting are always ahead of the current issues that may affect energy consumption and pricing. Now is the time to partner with an Onyx professional consultant to discuss energy management and secure energy prices based on today’s stable pricing. Volatility in the energy markets makes it too precarious to take chances. Partner with Onyx Power & Gas in Making Energy Make a Difference!

Posted in Clean Energy, CO2, Community Improvement, Consulting, Crude Oil, Crude Oil Prices, Drilling, Electricity, Electricity Prices, Emmissions, Energy, Energy Consumption, Energy Deregulation, Energy Prices, Environment, Fuel, Fuels, Gas, Generation, Green Energy, Natural Gas, Natural Gas Prices, OECD, Oil, Press Releases, Services, Shale Gas, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Natural Gas, Short-Term Energy Outlook 06-19

Onyx Power and Gas Consulting continues with its weekly series providing the Short-Term Energy Outlook as of June 11, 2019.  This series of news articles should provide a complete insight on the current conditions of the energy…enjoy, check out archives and come back each week for additional information on how all sorts of energy sources impact our daily lives.

Natural Gas

  • The Henry Hub natural gas spot price averaged $2.64/million British thermal units (MMBtu) in May, almost unchanged from April. EIA expects strong growth in U.S. natural gas production to put downward pressure on prices in 2019. EIA expects Henry Hub natural gas spot prices will average $2.77/MMBtu in 2019, down 38 cents/MMBtu from 2018. EIA expects natural gas prices in 2020 will again average $2.77/MMBtu.
  • EIA forecasts that U.S. dry natural gas production will average 90.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2019, up 7.2 Bcf/d from 2018. EIA expects natural gas production will continue to grow in 2020, albeit at a slower rate, averaging 91.8 Bcf/d next year.
  • U.S. natural gas exports averaged 9.9 Bcf/d in 2018, and EIA forecasts that they will rise by 2.5 Bcf/d in 2019 and by 2.9 Bcf/d in 2020. Rising exports reflect increases in liquefied natural gas exports as new facilities come online. Rising natural gas exports are also the result of an expected increase in pipeline exports to Mexico.
  • EIA estimates that natural gas inventories ended March at 1.2 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), 15% lower than levels from a year earlier and 28% lower than the five-year (2014–18) average. EIA forecasts that natural gas storage injections will outpace the previous five-year average during the 2019 April-through-October injection season and that inventories will reach almost 3.8 Tcf at the end of October, which would be 17% higher than October 2018 levels and about equal to the five-year average.
U.S. natural gas consumption
U.S. marketed natural gas production
U.S. natural gas trade
U.S. working natural gas in storage
U.S. natural gas balance

The professional consultants at Onyx Power & Gas Consulting are always ahead of the current issues that may affect energy consumption and pricing. Now is the time to partner with an Onyx professional consultant to discuss energy management and secure energy prices based on today’s stable pricing. Volatility in the energy markets makes it too precarious to take chances. Partner with Onyx Power & Gas in Making Energy Make a Difference!

Posted in Clean Energy, CO2, Community Improvement, Consulting, Crude Oil, Crude Oil Prices, Drilling, Electricity, Electricity Prices, Emmissions, Energy, Energy Consumption, Energy Deregulation, Energy Prices, Environment, Fuel, Fuels, Gas, Generation, Green Energy, Natural Gas, Natural Gas Prices, OECD, Oil, Press Releases, Services, Shale Gas, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

U.S. Liquid Fuels, Short-Term Energy Outlook 06-19

Onyx Power and Gas Consulting continues with its weekly series providing the Short-Term Energy Outlook as of June 11, 2019.  This series of news articles should provide a complete insight on the current conditions of the energy…enjoy, check out archives and come back each week for additional information on how all sorts of energy sources impact our daily lives.

U.S. Liquid Fuels

  • EIA forecasts global oil inventories will decline by 0.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2019 and then increase by 0.3 million b/d in 2020. Although global liquid fuels demand outpaces supply in 2019 in EIA’s forecast, global liquid fuels supply is forecast to rise by 2.0 million b/d in 2020, with 1.4 million of that growth coming from the United States. Global oil demand rises by 1.4 million b/d in 2020 in the forecast, up from expected growth of 1.2 million b/d in 2019.
  • Annual U.S. crude oil production reached a record 11.0 million b/d in 2018. EIA forecasts that U.S. production will increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2019 and by 0.9 million b/d in 2020, with 2020 production averaging 13.3 million b/d. Despite EIA’s expectation for slowing growth, the 2019 forecast would be the second-largest annual growth on record (following 1.6 million b/d in 2018), and the 2020 forecast would be the fifth-largest growth on record.
  • For the 2019 summer driving season, which runs from April through September, EIA forecasts that U.S. regular gasoline retail prices will average $2.76 per gallon (gal), down from an average of $2.85/gal last summer. The lower forecast gasoline prices primarily reflect EIA’s expectation of lower crude oil prices this summer.
U.S. liquid fuels product supplied growth
U.S. Hydrocarbon gas liquids product supplied growth
U.S. crude oil production
U.S. liquid fuels production growth
U.S. commercial crude oil stocks
U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories

The professional consultants at Onyx Power & Gas Consulting are always ahead of the current issues that may affect energy consumption and pricing. Now is the time to partner with an Onyx professional consultant to discuss energy management and secure energy prices based on today’s stable pricing. Volatility in the energy markets makes it too precarious to take chances. Partner with Onyx Power & Gas in Making Energy Make a Difference!

Posted in Clean Energy, CO2, Community Improvement, Consulting, Crude Oil, Crude Oil Prices, Drilling, Electricity, Electricity Prices, Emmissions, Energy, Energy Consumption, Energy Deregulation, Energy Prices, Environment, Fuel, Fuels, Gas, Generation, Green Energy, Natural Gas, Natural Gas Prices, OECD, Oil, Press Releases, Services, Shale Gas, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Global liquid fuels, Short-Term Energy Outlook 06-19

Global liquid fuels

  • Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $71 per barrel (b) in May, largely unchanged from April 2019 and almost $6/b lower than the price in May of last year. However, Brent prices fell sharply in recent weeks, reaching $62/b on June 5. EIA forecasts Brent spot prices will average $67/b in 2019, $3/b lower than the forecast in last month’s STEO, and remain at $67/b in 2020. EIA’s lower 2019 Brent price path reflects rising uncertainty about global oil demand growth.
  • EIA forecasts global oil inventories will decline by 0.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2019 and then increase by 0.3 million b/d in 2020. Although global liquid fuels demand outpaces supply in 2019 in EIA’s forecast, global liquid fuels supply is forecast to rise by 2.0 million b/d in 2020, with 1.4 million of that growth coming from the United States. Global oil demand rises by 1.4 million b/d in 2020 in the forecast, up from expected growth of 1.2 million b/d in 2019.
  • Annual U.S. crude oil production reached a record 11.0 million b/d in 2018. EIA forecasts that U.S. production will increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2019 and by 0.9 million b/d in 2020, with 2020 production averaging 13.3 million b/d. Despite EIA’s expectation for slowing growth, the 2019 forecast would be the second-largest annual growth on record (following 1.6 million b/d in 2018), and the 2020 forecast would be the fifth-largest growth on record.
World liquid fuels production and consumption balance
World liquid fuels consumption growth
World liquid fuels consumption
World liquid fuels production and consumption balance
Estimated unplanned crude oil production among OPEC and non-OPEC producers
OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity
OECD commercial stocks of crude oil and other liquids (days of supply)

The professional consultants at Onyx Power & Gas Consulting are always ahead of the current issues that may affect energy consumption and pricing. Now is the time to partner with an Onyx professional consultant to discuss energy management and secure energy prices based on today’s stable pricing. Volatility in the energy markets makes it too precarious to take chances. Partner with Onyx Power & Gas in Making Energy Make a Difference!

Posted in Clean Energy, CO2, Community Improvement, Consulting, Crude Oil, Crude Oil Prices, Drilling, Electricity, Electricity Prices, Emmissions, Energy, Energy Consumption, Energy Deregulation, Energy Prices, Environment, Fuel, Fuels, Gas, Generation, Green Energy, Natural Gas, Natural Gas Prices, OECD, Oil, Press Releases, Services, Shale Gas, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Prices – Short-Term Energy Outlook 06-19

Onyx Power and Gas Consulting continues with its weekly series providing the Short-Term Energy Outlook as of June 11, 2019.  This series of news articles should provide a complete insight on the current conditions of the energy…enjoy, check out archives and come back each week for additional information on how all sorts of energy sources impact our daily lives.

Prices

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  • Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $71 per barrel (b) in May, largely unchanged from April 2019 and almost $6/b lower than the price in May of last year. However, Brent prices fell sharply in recent weeks, reaching $62/b on June 5. EIA forecasts Brent spot prices will average $67/b in 2019, $3/b lower than the forecast in last month’s STEO, and remain at $67/b in 2020. EIA’s lower 2019 Brent price path reflects rising uncertainty about global oil demand growth.
  • For the 2019 summer driving season, which runs from April through September, EIA forecasts that U.S. regular gasoline retail prices will average $2.76 per gallon (gal), down from an average of $2.85/gal last summer. The lower forecast gasoline prices primarily reflect EIA’s expectation of lower crude oil prices this summer.
  • The Henry Hub natural gas spot price averaged $2.64/million British thermal units (MMBtu) in May, almost unchanged from April. EIA expects strong growth in U.S. natural gas production to put downward pressure on prices in 2019. EIA expects Henry Hub natural gas spot prices will average $2.77/MMBtu in 2019, down 38 cents/MMBtu from 2018. EIA expects natural gas prices in 2020 will again average $2.77/MMBtu.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price
U.S. gasoline and crude oil prices
U.S. diesel fuel and crude oil prices
Henry Hub natural gas price
U.S. natural gas prices
U.S. residential electricity price

The professional consultants at Onyx Power & Gas Consulting are always ahead of the current issues that may affect energy consumption and pricing. Now is the time to partner with an Onyx professional consultant to discuss energy management and secure energy prices based on today’s stable pricing. Volatility in the energy markets makes it too precarious to take chances. Partner with Onyx Power & Gas in Making Energy Make a Difference!

Posted in Clean Energy, CO2, Community Improvement, Consulting, Crude Oil, Crude Oil Prices, Drilling, Electricity, Electricity Prices, Emmissions, Energy, Energy Consumption, Energy Deregulation, Energy Prices, Environment, Fuel, Fuels, Gas, Generation, Green Energy, Natural Gas, Natural Gas Prices, OECD, Oil, Press Releases, Services, Shale Gas, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Forecast Highlights – Short-Term Energy Outlook 06-19

Onyx Power and Gas Consulting continues with its weekly series providing the Short-Term Energy Outlook as of June 11, 2019.  This series of news articles should provide a complete insight on the current conditions of the energy…enjoy, check out archives and come back each week for additional information on how all sorts of energy sources impact our daily lives.

Forecast Highlights

Global liquid fuels

  • Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $71 per barrel (b) in May, largely unchanged from April 2019 and almost $6/b lower than the price in May of last year. However, Brent prices fell sharply in recent weeks, reaching $62/b on June 5. EIA forecasts Brent spot prices will average $67/b in 2019, $3/b lower than the forecast in last month’s STEO, and remain at $67/b in 2020. EIA’s lower 2019 Brent price path reflects rising uncertainty about global oil demand growth.
  • EIA forecasts global oil inventories will decline by 0.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2019 and then increase by 0.3 million b/d in 2020. Although global liquid fuels demand outpaces supply in 2019 in EIA’s forecast, global liquid fuels supply is forecast to rise by 2.0 million b/d in 2020, with 1.4 million of that growth coming from the United States. Global oil demand rises by 1.4 million b/d in 2020 in the forecast, up from expected growth of 1.2 million b/d in 2019.
  • Annual U.S. crude oil production reached a record 11.0 million b/d in 2018. EIA forecasts that U.S. production will increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2019 and by 0.9 million b/d in 2020, with 2020 production averaging 13.3 million b/d. Despite EIA’s expectation for slowing growth, the 2019 forecast would be the second-largest annual growth on record (following 1.6 million b/d in 2018), and the 2020 forecast would be the fifth-largest growth on record.
  • For the 2019 summer driving season, which runs from April through September, EIA forecasts that U.S. regular gasoline retail prices will average $2.76 per gallon (gal), down from an average of $2.85/gal last summer. The lower forecast gasoline prices primarily reflect EIA’s expectation of lower crude oil prices this summer.

Natural gas

  • The Henry Hub natural gas spot price averaged $2.64/million British thermal units (MMBtu) in May, almost unchanged from April. EIA expects strong growth in U.S. natural gas production to put downward pressure on prices in 2019. EIA expects Henry Hub natural gas spot prices will average $2.77/MMBtu in 2019, down 38 cents/MMBtu from 2018. EIA expects natural gas prices in 2020 will again average $2.77/MMBtu.
  • EIA forecasts that U.S. dry natural gas production will average 90.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2019, up 7.2 Bcf/d from 2018. EIA expects natural gas production will continue to grow in 2020, albeit at a slower rate, averaging 91.8 Bcf/d next year.
  • U.S. natural gas exports averaged 9.9 Bcf/d in 2018, and EIA forecasts that they will rise by 2.5 Bcf/d in 2019 and by 2.9 Bcf/d in 2020. Rising exports reflect increases in liquefied natural gas exports as new facilities come online. Rising natural gas exports are also the result of an expected increase in pipeline exports to Mexico.
  • EIA estimates that natural gas inventories ended March at 1.2 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), 15% lower than levels from a year earlier and 28% lower than the five-year (2014–18) average. EIA forecasts that natural gas storage injections will outpace the previous five-year average during the 2019 April-through-October injection season and that inventories will reach almost 3.8 Tcf at the end of October, which would be 17% higher than October 2018 levels and about equal to the five-year average.

Electricity, coal, renewables, and emissions

  • EIA expects the share of U.S. total utility-scale electricity generation from natural gas-fired power plants to rise from 35% in 2018 to 37% in 2019 and to 38% in 2020. EIA forecasts that the share of generation from coal will average 24% in 2019 and 23% in 2020, down from 27% in 2018. The forecast nuclear share of generation falls from 20% in 2019 to 19% in 2020, reflecting the retirement of some nuclear reactors. Hydropower averages a 7% share of total generation in the forecast for 2019 and 2020, similar to 2018. Wind, solar, and other nonhydropower renewables together provided 10% of U.S. generation in 2018. EIA expects they will provide 11% in 2019 and 13% in 2020.
  • EIA forecasts that renewable fuels, including wind, solar, and hydropower, will collectively produce 18% of U.S. electricity in 2019 and almost 20% in 2020. EIA expects that annual generation from wind will surpass hydropower generation for the first time in 2019 to become the leading source of renewable electricity generation and maintain that position in 2020.
  • EIA forecasts that U.S. coal consumption, which reached a 39-year low of 687 million metric tons (MMst) in 2018, will fall to 602 MMst in 2019 and to 567 MMst in 2020. The falling consumption reflects lower demand for coal in the electric power sector.
  • After rising by 2.7% in 2018, EIA forecasts that U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will decline by 2.0% in 2019 and by 0.9% in 2020. EIA expects U.S. CO2 emissions will fall in 2019 and in 2020 because its forecast assumes that temperatures will return to near normal, and because the forecast share of electricity generated from natural gas and renewables increases while the forecast share generated from coal, which produces more CO2 emissions, decreases. Energy-related CO2 emissions are sensitive to weather, economic growth, energy prices, and fuel mix.
Price Summary
2017201820192020
WTI Crude Oila 
(dollars per barrel)
50.7965.0659.2963.00
Brent Crude Oil 
(dollars per barrel)
54.1571.1966.6967.00
Gasolineb 
(dollars per gallon)
2.422.732.642.75
Dieselc 
(dollars per gallon)
2.653.183.113.28
Heating Oild 
(dollars per gallon)
2.513.013.023.13
Natural Gasd 
(dollars per thousand cubic feet)
10.8610.4910.6010.92
Electricityd 
(cents per kilowatthour)
12.8912.8913.0613.22
aWest Texas Intermediate.
bAverage regular pump price.
cOn-highway retail.
dU.S. Residential average.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price
World liquid fuels production and consumption balance
U.S. natural gas prices
U.S. residential electricity price

The professional consultants at Onyx Power & Gas Consulting are always ahead of the current issues that may affect energy consumption and pricing. Now is the time to partner with an Onyx professional consultant to discuss energy management and secure energy prices based on today’s stable pricing. Volatility in the energy markets makes it too precarious to take chances. Partner with Onyx Power & Gas in Making Energy Make a Difference!

Posted in Clean Energy, CO2, Community Improvement, Consulting, Crude Oil, Crude Oil Prices, Drilling, Electricity, Electricity Prices, Emmissions, Energy, Energy Consumption, Energy Deregulation, Energy Prices, Environment, Fuel, Fuels, Gas, Generation, Green Energy, Natural Gas, Natural Gas Prices, OECD, Oil, Press Releases, Services, Shale Gas, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Natural Gas Prices, Short-Term Energy Outlook

Onyx Power and Gas Consulting continues with its weekly series providing the Short-Term Energy Outlook as of March 12, 2019.  This series of news articles should provide a complete insight on the current conditions of the energy…enjoy, check out archives and come back each week for additional information on how all sorts of energy sources impact our daily lives.

Natural Gas

Prices: The front-month natural gas futures contract for delivery at the Henry Hub settled at $2.87/million British thermal units (MMBtu) on March 7, 2019, an increase of 13 cents/MMBtu from February 1, 2019 (Figure 6). After showing much higher volatility since September, front-month futures prices in February traded within a range of 37 cents/MMBtu, the narrowest range for that month in 19 years. Colder-than-normal temperatures in the second half of the month contributed to larger inventory draws and rising prices. Storage withdrawals for the three weeks ending March 1 totaled 492 billion cubic feet (Bcf), which was 131 Bcf (36%) higher than the five-year average (2014–18). The higher-than-average withdrawals caused the inventory deficit to the five-year average to reach 464 Bcf (25%) on March 1.

Figure 6: U.S. natural gas fron-month futures prices and storage

Supply and demand: In the current STEO, EIA expects that total supply of natural gas will outpace demand through the end of 2020. EIA estimates that, in January 2019, the 12-month average of natural gas supply (production combined with imports) exceeded the 12-month average of demand (consumption combined with exports) for the first time since December 2017 (Figure 7). EIA forecasts that natural gas production will continue to increase, setting record highs in 2019 and in 2020. In addition, based on company reports, EIA expects new liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacity to come online this year and contribute to rising LNG exports. EIA expects the bulk of this capacity to start in the second quarter of 2019. As a result of the ongoing production growth, however, the 12-month moving average of supply is forecast to exceed demand through the forecast period. EIA forecasts that the higher supply growth will bring inventory levels back near five-year averages and help to keep price levels moderate. EIA forecasts Henry Hub spot prices to average $2.85/MMBtu in 2019, down by 30 cents/MMBtu from the 2018 average.

Figure 7: Natural gas production plus imports and consumption plus exports

Ethane-natural gas price spreads: The price spread between ethane and natural gas has remained greater than $1/MMBtu since mid-January. Ethane spot prices at the Mt. Belvieu, Texas, hydrocarbon gas liquids (HGL) trading hub were highly correlated with Henry Hub natural gas spot prices from about 2012 until mid-2017 (Figure 8). Since then, additions to petrochemical capacity in the form of new-build ethylene crackers as well as expansions and debottlenecking at existing facilities have increased demand for ethane and contributed to rising ethane prices. Growing exports, especially from the Morgan’s Point terminal on the Houston Ship Channel, have also put upward pressure on ethane prices since mid-2017. With higher ethane prices relative to natural gas, producers further inland are likely able to economically extract ethane from natural gas and cover transportation costs to the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Figure 8: Natural gas futures and ethane spot prices

The professional consultants at Onyx Power & Gas Consulting are always ahead of the current issues that may affect energy consumption and pricing. Now is the time to partner with an Onyx professional consultant to discuss energy management and secure energy prices based on today’s stable pricing. Volatility in the energy markets makes it too precarious to take chances. Partner with Onyx Power & Gas in Making Energy Make a Difference!

Posted in Clean Energy, CO2, Community Improvement, Consulting, Crude Oil, Crude Oil Prices, Drilling, Electricity, Electricity Prices, Emmissions, Energy Consumption, Energy Deregulation, Energy Prices, Environment, Fuel, Fuels, Generation, Green Energy, Natural Gas, Natural Gas Prices, OECD, Oil, Press Releases, Services, Shale Gas | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment