Natural Gas – Short-Term Energy Outlook

Onyx Power and Gas Consulting continues with its weekly series providing the Short-Term Energy Outlook as of September 11, 2018.  This series of news articles should provide a complete insight on the current conditions of the energy…enjoy, check out archives and come back each week for additional information on how all sorts of energy sources impact our daily lives.

Natural Gas

  • EIA estimates dry natural gas production in the United States was 82.2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in August, up 0.7 Bcf/d from July. Dry natural gas production is forecast to average 81.0 Bcf/d in 2018, up by 7.4 Bcf/d from 2017 and establishing a new record high. EIA expects natural gas production will continue to rise in 2019 to an average of 84.7 Bcf/d.
  • EIA forecasts that U.S. natural gas inventories will total 3.3 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) at the end of October. This level would be 13% lower than the 2017 end-of-October level and 14% below the five-year (2013–17) average for the end of October, while also marking the lowest level for that time of year since 2005.
  • EIA expects Henry Hub natural gas spot prices to average $2.99/million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2018 and $3.12/MMBtu in 2019. NYMEX futures and options contract values for December 2018 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending September 6, 2018, suggest a range of $2.31/MMBtu to $3.77/MMBtu encompasses the market expectation for December Henry Hub natural gas prices at the 95% confidence level.
U.S. natural gas consumption
U.S. natural gas balance
U.S. marketed natural gas production
U.S. natural gas trade
U.S. working natural gas in storage

The professional consultants at Onyx Power & Gas Consulting are always ahead of the current issues that may affect energy consumption and pricing. Now is the time to partner with an Onyx professional consultant to discuss energy management and secure energy prices based on today’s stable pricing. Volatility in the energy markets makes it too precarious to take chances. Partner with Onyx Power & Gas in Making Energy Make a Difference!

Posted in CO2, Community Improvement, Consulting, Crude Oil, Crude Oil Prices, Drilling, Electricity, Electricity Prices, Emmissions, Energy, Energy Consumption, Energy Deregulation, Energy Prices, Environment, Fuel, Fuels, Gas, Generation, Natural Gas, Natural Gas Prices, OECD, Oil, Press Releases, Services, Shale Gas | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

U.S. Liquid Fuels – Short-Term Energy Outlook

Onyx Power and Gas Consulting continues with its weekly series providing the Short-Term Energy Outlook as of September 11, 2018.  This series of news articles should provide a complete insight on the current conditions of the energy…enjoy, check out archives and come back each week for additional information on how all sorts of energy sources impact our daily lives.

U.S. Liquid Fuels

  • Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $73 per barrel (b) in August, down almost $2 from July. EIA expects Brent spot prices will average $73/b in 2018 and $74/b in 2019. EIA expects West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices will average about $6/b lower than Brent prices in 2018 and in 2019. NYMEX WTI futures and options contract values for December 2018 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending September 6, 2018, suggest a range of $56/b to $85/b encompasses the market expectation for December WTI prices at the 95% confidence level.
  • EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production averaged 10.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in August, up by 120,000 b/d from June. EIA forecasts that U.S. crude oil production will average 10.7 million b/d in 2018, up from 9.4 million b/d in 2017, and will average 11.5 million b/d in 2019.
  • EIA forecasts total global liquid fuels inventories to decrease by 0.4 million b/d in 2018 compared with 2017, followed by an increase of 0.1 million b/d in 2019. This outlook of relatively stable inventory levels during the forecast period contributes to a forecast of monthly average Brent crude oil prices remaining relatively stable, between $72/b and $76/b, from September 2018 through the end of 2019.
U.S. liquid fuels product supplied growth
U.S. Hydrocarbon gas liquids product supplied growth
U.S. crude oil production
U.S. commercial crude oil stocks
U.S. liquid fuels production growth
U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories

The professional consultants at Onyx Power & Gas Consulting are always ahead of the current issues that may affect energy consumption and pricing. Now is the time to partner with an Onyx professional consultant to discuss energy management and secure energy prices based on today’s stable pricing. Volatility in the energy markets makes it too precarious to take chances. Partner with Onyx Power & Gas in Making Energy Make a Difference!

Posted in CO2, Community Improvement, Consulting, Crude Oil, Crude Oil Prices, Drilling, Electricity, Electricity Prices, Emmissions, Energy, Energy Consumption, Energy Deregulation, Energy Prices, Environment, Fuel, Fuels, Gas, Generation, Natural Gas, Natural Gas Prices, OECD, Oil, Press Releases, Services, Shale Gas | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Global Liquid Fuels – Short-Term Energy Outlook

Onyx Power and Gas Consulting continues with its weekly series providing the Short-Term Energy Outlook as of September 11, 2018.  This series of news articles should provide a complete insight on the current conditions of the energy…enjoy, check out archives and come back each week for additional information on how all sorts of energy sources impact our daily lives.

Global Liquid Fuels

  • Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $73 per barrel (b) in August, down almost $2 from July. EIA expects Brent spot prices will average $73/b in 2018 and $74/b in 2019. EIA expects West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices will average about $6/b lower than Brent prices in 2018 and in 2019. NYMEX WTI futures and options contract values for December 2018 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending September 6, 2018, suggest a range of $56/b to $85/b encompasses the market expectation for December WTI prices at the 95% confidence level.
  • EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production averaged 10.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in August, up by 120,000 b/d from June. EIA forecasts that U.S. crude oil production will average 10.7 million b/d in 2018, up from 9.4 million b/d in 2017, and will average 11.5 million b/d in 2019.
  • EIA forecasts total global liquid fuels inventories to decrease by 0.4 million b/d in 2018 compared with 2017, followed by an increase of 0.1 million b/d in 2019. This outlook of relatively stable inventory levels during the forecast period contributes to a forecast of monthly average Brent crude oil prices remaining relatively stable, between $72/b and $76/b, from September 2018 through the end of 2019.
World liquid fuels production and consumption balance
World liquid fuels consumption
World liquid fuels consumption growth
World liquid fuels production and consumption balance
Estimated unplanned crude oil production among OPEC and non-OPEC producers
OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity
OECD commercial stocks of crude oil and other liquids (days of supply)

The professional consultants at Onyx Power & Gas Consulting are always ahead of the current issues that may affect energy consumption and pricing. Now is the time to partner with an Onyx professional consultant to discuss energy management and secure energy prices based on today’s stable pricing. Volatility in the energy markets makes it too precarious to take chances. Partner with Onyx Power & Gas in Making Energy Make a Difference!

Posted in CO2, Community Improvement, Consulting, Crude Oil, Crude Oil Prices, Drilling, Electricity, Electricity Prices, Emmissions, Energy, Energy Consumption, Energy Deregulation, Energy Prices, Environment, Fuel, Fuels, Gas, Generation, Natural Gas, Natural Gas Prices, OECD, Oil, Press Releases, Services, Shale Gas | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Prices – Short-Term Energy Output

Onyx Power and Gas Consulting continues with its weekly series providing the Short-Term Energy Outlook as of September 11, 2018.  This series of news articles should provide a complete insight on the current conditions of the energy…enjoy, check out archives and come back each week for additional information on how all sorts of energy sources impact our daily lives.

Prices

  • Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $73 per barrel (b) in August, down almost $2 from July. EIA expects Brent spot prices will average $73/b in 2018 and $74/b in 2019. EIA expects West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices will average about $6/b lower than Brent prices in 2018 and in 2019. NYMEX WTI futures and options contract values for December 2018 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending September 6, 2018, suggest a range of $56/b to $85/b encompasses the market expectation for December WTI prices at the 95% confidence level.
  • EIA forecasts total global liquid fuels inventories to decrease by 0.4 million b/d in 2018 compared with 2017, followed by an increase of 0.1 million b/d in 2019. This outlook of relatively stable inventory levels during the forecast period contributes to a forecast of monthly average Brent crude oil prices remaining relatively stable, between $72/b and $76/b, from September 2018 through the end of 2019.
  • EIA expects Henry Hub natural gas spot prices to average $2.99/million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2018 and $3.12/MMBtu in 2019. NYMEX futures and options contract values for December 2018 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending September 6, 2018, suggest a range of $2.31/MMBtu to $3.77/MMBtu encompasses the market expectation for December Henry Hub natural gas prices at the 95% confidence level.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price
U.S. gasoline and crude oil prices
U.S. diesel fuel and crude oil prices
Henry Hub natural gas price
U.S. natural gas prices
U.S. residential electricity price

The professional consultants at Onyx Power & Gas Consulting are always ahead of the current issues that may affect energy consumption and pricing. Now is the time to partner with an Onyx professional consultant to discuss energy management and secure energy prices based on today’s stable pricing. Volatility in the energy markets makes it too precarious to take chances. Partner with Onyx Power & Gas in Making Energy Make a Difference!

Posted in CO2, Community Improvement, Consulting, Crude Oil, Crude Oil Prices, Drilling, Electricity, Electricity Prices, Emmissions, Energy, Energy Consumption, Energy Deregulation, Energy Prices, Environment, Fuel, Fuels, Gas, Generation, Natural Gas, Natural Gas Prices, OECD, Oil, Press Releases, Services, Shale Gas | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Short-Term Energy Outlook

Onyx Power and Gas Consulting continues with its weekly series providing the Short-Term Energy Outlook as of September 11, 2018.  This series of news articles should provide a complete insight on the current conditions of the energy…enjoy, check out archives and come back each week for additional information on how all sorts of energy sources impact our daily lives.

Forecast Highlights

Global liquid fuels

  • Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $73 per barrel (b) in August, down almost $2 from July. EIA expects Brent spot prices will average $73/b in 2018 and $74/b in 2019. EIA expects West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices will average about $6/b lower than Brent prices in 2018 and in 2019. NYMEX WTI futures and options contract values for December 2018 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending September 6, 2018, suggest a range of $56/b to $85/b encompasses the market expectation for December WTI prices at the 95% confidence level.
  • EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production averaged 10.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in August, up by 120,000 b/d from June. EIA forecasts that U.S. crude oil production will average 10.7 million b/d in 2018, up from 9.4 million b/d in 2017, and will average 11.5 million b/d in 2019.
  • EIA forecasts total global liquid fuels inventories to decrease by 0.4 million b/d in 2018 compared with 2017, followed by an increase of 0.1 million b/d in 2019. This outlook of relatively stable inventory levels during the forecast period contributes to a forecast of monthly average Brent crude oil prices remaining relatively stable, between $72/b and $76/b, from September 2018 through the end of 2019.

Natural Gas

  • EIA estimates dry natural gas production in the United States was 82.2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in August, up 0.7 Bcf/d from July. Dry natural gas production is forecast to average 81.0 Bcf/d in 2018, up by 7.4 Bcf/d from 2017 and establishing a new record high. EIA expects natural gas production will continue to rise in 2019 to an average of 84.7 Bcf/d.
  • EIA forecasts that U.S. natural gas inventories will total 3.3 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) at the end of October. This level would be 13% lower than the 2017 end-of-October level and 14% below the five-year (2013–17) average for the end of October, while also marking the lowest level for that time of year since 2005.
  • EIA expects Henry Hub natural gas spot prices to average $2.99/million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2018 and $3.12/MMBtu in 2019. NYMEX futures and options contract values for December 2018 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending September 6, 2018, suggest a range of $2.31/MMBtu to $3.77/MMBtu encompasses the market expectation for December Henry Hub natural gas prices at the 95% confidence level.

Elecriticty, coal, renewables, and emissions

  • EIA expects the share of U.S. total utility-scale electricity generation from natural gas-fired power plants to rise from 32% in 2017 to 34% in 2018 and to 35% in 2019. EIA’s forecast electricity generation share from coal averages 28% in 2018 and 27% in 2019, down from 30% in 2017. The nuclear share of generation was 20% in 2017 and is forecast to be 20% in 2018 and 19% in 2019. Nonhydropower renewables provided slightly less than 10% of electricity generation in 2017, and EIA expects them to provide more than 10% in 2018 and nearly 11% in 2019. The generation share of hydropower was 7% in 2017 and is forecast to be about the same in 2018 and 2019.
  • In 2017, EIA estimates that U.S. wind generation averaged 697,000 megawatthours per day (MWh/d). EIA forecasts that wind generation will rise by 8% to 756,000 MWh/d in 2018 and by 4% to 784,000 MWh/d in 2019.
  • Solar power generates less electricity in the United States than wind power, but solar power also continues to grow. EIA expects solar generation will rise from 211,000 MWh/d in 2017 to 263,000 MWh/d in 2018 (an increase of 24%) and to 289,000 MWh/d in 2019 (an increase of 10%).
  • EIA forecasts U.S. coal production will decline by 1% to 768 million short tons (MMst) in 2018, despite a 10% (10 MMst) increase in coal exports. The production decrease is largely attributable to a forecast decline of 2% (17 MMst) in domestic coal consumption in 2018. EIA expects coal production to decline by 2% (12 MMst) in 2019, because coal exports and coal consumption are both forecast to decrease.
  • EIA estimates U.S. coal exports through the first half of 2018 were 32% (14 MMst) higher than in the same period of 2017, and June was the second month of this year that exports exceeded 10 MMst. EIA forecasts total coal exports to be 107 MMst in 2018 and 101 MMst in 2019, with U.S. coal exports to Asia expected to remain strong. Three of the top five destinations for U.S. coal exports are in Asia, with India, South Korea, and Japan accounting for more than one-third of U.S. exports through March, the most recent month for which EIA has actual data.
  • After declining by 0.9% in 2017, EIA forecasts that U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will rise by 2.3% in 2018. The increase largely reflects higher natural gas consumption because of a colder winter and a warmer summer than in 2017. Emissions are forecast to decline by 0.9% in 2019. Energy-related CO2 emissions are sensitive to changes in weather, economic growth, energy prices, and fuel mix.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price

    The professional consultants at Onyx Power & Gas Consulting are always ahead of the current issues that may affect energy consumption and pricing. Now is the time to partner with an Onyx professional consultant to discuss energy management and secure energy prices based on today’s stable pricing. Volatility in the energy markets makes it too precarious to take chances. Partner with Onyx Power & Gas in Making Energy Make a Difference!

    Posted in CO2, Community Improvement, Consulting, Crude Oil, Crude Oil Prices, Drilling, Electricity, Electricity Prices, Emmissions, Energy, Energy Consumption, Energy Deregulation, Energy Prices, Environment, Fuel, Fuels, Gas, Generation, Natural Gas, Natural Gas Prices, OECD, Oil, Press Releases, Services, Shale Gas | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

    U.S. Liquid Fuels – Short-Term Energy Outlook

    U.S. Liquid Fuels

    • Onyx Power and Gas Consulting continues with its weekly series providing the Short-Term Energy Outlook as of August 8, 2018.  This series of news articles should provide a complete insight on the current conditions of the energy…enjoy, check out archives and come back each week for additional information on how all sorts of energy sources impact our daily lives.
    • Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $74 per barrel (b) in July, largely unchanged from the average in June. EIA expects Brent spot prices will average $72/b in 2018 and $71/b in 2019. EIA expects West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices will average about $6/b lower than Brent prices in 2018 and in 2019. NYMEX WTI futures and options contract values for November 2018 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending August 2, 2018, suggest a range of $54/b to $84/b encompasses the market expectation for November WTI prices at the 95% confidence level.
    • U.S. regular gasoline retail prices averaged $2.85 gallon (gal) in July, down 4 cents/gal from the average in June. EIA expects that 2018 monthly average gasoline prices peaked in Mayand forecasts prices will remain relatively flat in the coming months, averaging $2.83/gal in September. EIA expects regular gasoline retail prices to average $2.76/gal in 2018 and in 2019.
    • EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production averaged 10.8 million barrels per day (b/d) in July, up 47,000 b/d from June. EIA forecasts that U.S. crude oil production will average 10.7 million b/d in 2018, up from 9.4 million b/d in 2017, and will average 11.7 million b/d in 2019.
    U.S. liquid fuels product supplied growth
    U.S. Hydrocarbon gas liquids product supplied growth
    U.S. crude oil production
    U.S. commercial crude oil stocks
    U.S. liquid fuels production growth
    U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories

    The professional consultants at Onyx Power & Gas Consulting are always ahead of the current issues that may affect energy consumption and pricing. Now is the time to partner with an Onyx professional consultant to discuss energy management and secure energy prices based on today’s stable pricing. Volatility in the energy markets makes it too precarious to take chances. Partner with Onyx Power & Gas in Making Energy Make a Difference!

    Posted in CO2, Community Improvement, Consulting, Crude Oil, Crude Oil Prices, Drilling, Electricity, Electricity Prices, Emmissions, Energy, Energy Consumption, Energy Deregulation, Energy Prices, Environment, Fuel, Fuels, Gas, Generation, Natural Gas, Natural Gas Prices, OECD, Oil, Press Releases, Services, Shale Gas | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

    Global Liquid Fuels – Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Onyx Power and Gas Consulting continues with its weekly series providing the Short-Term Energy Outlook as of August 8, 2018.  This series of news articles should provide a complete insight on the current conditions of the energy…enjoy, check out archives and come back each week for additional information on how all sorts of energy sources impact our daily lives.

    Global Liquid Fuels

    • Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $74 per barrel (b) in July, largely unchanged from the average in June. EIA expects Brent spot prices will average $72/b in 2018 and $71/b in 2019. EIA expects West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices will average about $6/b lower than Brent prices in 2018 and in 2019. NYMEX WTI futures and options contract values for November 2018 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending August 2, 2018, suggest a range of $54/b to $84/b encompasses the market expectation for November WTI prices at the 95% confidence level.
    • EIA forecasts total global liquid fuels inventories to decrease by 0.2 million b/d in 2018 compared with 2017, followed by an increase of 0.3 million b/d in 2019. This outlook of relatively stable inventory levels over the forecast period contributes to a forecast of monthly average Brent crude oil prices remaining relatively stable between $70/b and $73/b, from August 2018 through the end of 2019.
    World liquid fuels production and consumption balance
    World liquid fuels consumption
    World liquid fuels consumption growth
    World liquid fuels production and consumption balance
    Estimated unplanned crude oil production among OPEC and non-OPEC producers
    OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity
    OECD commercial stocks of crude oil and other liquids (days of supply)
    Posted in CO2, Community Improvement, Consulting, Crude Oil, Crude Oil Prices, Drilling, Electricity, Electricity Prices, Emmissions, Energy, Energy Consumption, Energy Deregulation, Energy Prices, Environment, Fuel, Fuels, Gas, Generation, Natural Gas, Natural Gas Prices, OECD, Oil, Press Releases, Services, Shale Gas | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

    Prices – Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Onyx Power and Gas Consulting continues with its weekly series providing the Short-Term Energy Outlook as of August 8, 2018.  This series of news articles should provide a complete insight on the current conditions of the energy…enjoy, check out archives and come back each week for additional information on how all sorts of energy sources impact our daily lives.

    Prices

    • Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $74 per barrel (b) in July, largely unchanged from the average in June. EIA expects Brent spot prices will average $72/b in 2018 and $71/b in 2019. EIA expects West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices will average about $6/b lower than Brent prices in 2018 and in 2019. NYMEX WTI futures and options contract values for November 2018 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending August 2, 2018, suggest a range of $54/b to $84/b encompasses the market expectation for November WTI prices at the 95% confidence level.
    • U.S. regular gasoline retail prices averaged $2.85 gallon (gal) in July, down 4 cents/gal from the average in June. EIA expects that 2018 monthly average gasoline prices peaked in Mayand forecasts prices will remain relatively flat in the coming months, averaging $2.83/gal in September. EIA expects regular gasoline retail prices to average $2.76/gal in 2018 and in 2019.
    • EIA forecasts total global liquid fuels inventories to decrease by 0.3 million b/d in 2018 compared with 2017, followed by an increase of 0.3 million b/d in 2019. This outlook of relatively stable inventory levels over the forecast period contributes to a forecast of monthly average Brent crude oil prices remaining relatively stable between $70/b and $73/b, from August 2018 through the end of 2019.
    • EIA expects Henry Hub natural gas spot prices to average $2.96/million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2018 and $3.10/MMBtu in 2019. NYMEX futures and options contract values for November 2018 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending August 2, 2018, suggest a range of $2.33/MMBtu to $3.48/MMBtu encompasses the market expectation for November Henry Hub natural gas prices at the 95% confidence level.

    West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price

    U.S. gasoline and crude oil prices

    U.S. diesel fuel and crude oil prices

    Henry Hub natural gas price

    U.S. natural gas prices

    U.S. residential electricity price

    The professional consultants at Onyx Power & Gas Consulting are always ahead of the current issues that may affect energy consumption and pricing. Now is the time to partner with an Onyx professional consultant to discuss energy management and secure energy prices based on today’s stable pricing. Volatility in the energy markets makes it too precarious to take chances. Partner with Onyx Power & Gas in Making Energy Make a Difference!

    Posted in CO2, Community Improvement, Consulting, Crude Oil, Crude Oil Prices, Drilling, Electricity, Electricity Prices, Emmissions, Energy, Energy Consumption, Energy Deregulation, Energy Prices, Environment, Fuel, Fuels, Gas, Generation, Natural Gas, Natural Gas Prices, OECD, Oil, Press Releases, Services, Shale Gas | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

    Forecast Highlights – Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Onyx Power and Gas Consulting continues with its weekly series providing the Short-Term Energy Outlook as of August 8, 2018.  This series of news articles should provide a complete insight on the current conditions of the energy…enjoy, check out archives and come back each week for additional information on how all sorts of energy sources impact our daily lives.

    Forecast Highlights

    Global liquid fuels

    • Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $74 per barrel (b) in July, largely unchanged from the average in June. EIA expects Brent spot prices will average $72/b in 2018 and $71/b in 2019. EIA expects West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices will average about $6/b lower than Brent prices in 2018 and in 2019. NYMEX WTI futures and options contract values for November 2018 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending August 2, 2018, suggest a range of $54/b to $84/b encompasses the market expectation for November WTI prices at the 95% confidence level.
    • U.S. regular gasoline retail prices averaged $2.85 gallon (gal) in July, down 4 cents/gal from the average in June. EIA expects that 2018 monthly average gasoline prices peaked in Mayand forecasts prices will remain relatively flat in the coming months, averaging $2.83/gal in September. EIA expects regular gasoline retail prices to average $2.76/gal in 2018 and in 2019.
    • EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production averaged 10.8 million barrels per day (b/d) in July, up 47,000 b/d from June. EIA forecasts that U.S. crude oil production will average 10.7 million b/d in 2018, up from 9.4 million b/d in 2017, and will average 11.7 million b/d in 2019.
    • EIA forecasts total global liquid fuels inventories to decrease by 0.2 million b/d in 2018 compared with 2017, followed by an increase of 0.3 million b/d in 2019. This outlook of relatively stable inventory levels over the forecast period contributes to a forecast of monthly average Brent crude oil prices remaining relatively stable between $70/b and $73/b, from August 2018 through the end of 2019.

    Natural Gas

    • EIA estimates dry natural gas production was 81.8 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in July, up 0.4 Bcf/d from June. EIA forecasts dry natural gas production will average 81.1 Bcf/d in 2018, up by 7.5 Bcf/d from 2017 and establishing a new record high. EIA expects natural gas production will rise again in 2019 to 84.1 Bcf/d.
    • EIA forecasts that pipeline exports of natural gas, which averaged 6.7 Bcf/d in 2017, will average 7.0 Bcf/d in 2018 and 8.5 Bcf/d in 2019. Increasing natural gas production in the United States and the completion of new pipelines that carry U.S. natural gas to demand centers in Mexico contribute to the expected increase. In June, two new pipelines in Mexico were placed in service that will distribute natural gas from the United States to destinations in Mexico. In addition, EIA forecasts exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) rise from 1.9 Bcf/d in 2017 to 3.0 Bcf/d in 2018 and to 5.1 Bcf/d in 2019. This growth contributes to U.S. net exports of natural gas averaging 2.0 Bcf/d in 2018 and 5.4 Bcf/d in 2019, compared with 0.3 Bcf/d in 2017.
    • EIA expects Henry Hub natural gas spot prices to average $2.96/million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2018 and $3.10/MMBtu in 2019. NYMEX futures and options contract values for November 2018 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending August 2, 2018, suggest a range of $2.33/MMBtu to $3.48/MMBtu encompasses the market expectation for November Henry Hub natural gas prices at the 95% confidence level.

    Elecriticty, coal, renewables, and emissions

    • EIA expects the share of U.S. total utility-scale electricity generation from natural gas-fired power plants to rise from 32% in 2017 to 34% in 2018 and to 35% in 2019. EIA’s forecast electricity generation share from coal averages 28% in 2018 and 27% in 2019, down from 30% in 2017. The nuclear share of generation was 20% in 2017 and is forecast to be 20% in 2018 and then fall to 19% in 2019. Nonhydropower renewables provided slightly less than 10% of electricity generation in 2017 and EIA expects it to provide more than 10% in 2018 and nearly 11% in 2019. The generation share of hydropower was 7% in 2017 and is forecast to be about the same in 2018 and 2019.
    • In 2017, EIA estimates that wind generation averaged 697,000 megawatthours per day (MWh/d). EIA forecasts that wind generation will rise by 7% to 746,000 MWh/d in 2018 and by 5% in to 782,000 MWh/d in 2019.
    • Although solar power generates less electricity in the United States than wind power, solar power continues to grow. EIA expects solar generation will rise from 211,000 MWh/d in 2017 to 260,000 MWh/d in 2018 (an increase of 23%) and to 290,000 MWh/d in 2019 (an increase of 12%).
    • EIA forecasts coal production will decline by 1.1% to 766 million short tons (MMst) in 2018 despite a 5.7% (6 MMst) increase in coal exports. The production decrease is largely attributable to a forecast decline of 2.1% (15 MMst) in domestic coal consumption in 2018. EIA expects coal production to decline by 1.8% (14 MMst) in 2019 because coal exports and coal consumption are both forecast to decrease
    • After declining by 0.9% in 2017, EIA forecasts that energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will rise by 2.0% in 2018. The increase largely reflects higher natural gas consumption because of a colder winter and warmer summer than in 2017. Emissions are forecast to decline by 0.8% in 2019. Energy-related CO2 emissions are sensitive to changes in weather, economic growth, energy prices, and fuel mix.

    The professional consultants at Onyx Power & Gas Consulting are always ahead of the current issues that may affect energy consumption and pricing. Now is the time to partner with an Onyx professional consultant to discuss energy management and secure energy prices based on today’s stable pricing. Volatility in the energy markets makes it too precarious to take chances. Partner with Onyx Power & Gas in Making Energy Make a Difference!

    Posted in CO2, Community Improvement, Consulting, Crude Oil, Crude Oil Prices, Drilling, Electricity, Electricity Prices, Emmissions, Energy, Energy Consumption, Energy Deregulation, Energy Prices, Environment, Fuel, Fuels, Gas, Generation, Natural Gas, Natural Gas Prices, OECD, Oil, Press Releases, Services, Shale Gas | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

    Natural Gas – Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Onyx Power and Gas Consulting continues with its weekly series providing the Short-Term Energy Outlook as of June 12, 2018.  This series of news articles should provide a complete insight on the current conditions of the energy…enjoy, check out archives and come back each week for additional information on how all sorts of energy sources impact our daily lives.

    Natural Gas

    Prices: The front-month natural gas futures contract for delivery at the Henry Hub settled at $2.93/million British thermal units (MMBtu) on June 7, an increase of 13 cents/MMBtu from May 1 (Figure 8). This year, the coldest April in the past 21 years resulted in a delayed start to the summer injection season. The 2018 summer injection season did not start until April 27, four weeks later than in 2017. Working natural gas stocks as of June 1 were 1,817 billion cubic feet (Bcf), 31% lower than the year-ago level and 22% lower than the five-year (2013–17) average for that time of year. The large working natural gas inventory deficit and the late start to the storage injection season contributed to higher Henry Hub prices despite record production growth. EIA estimates that dry natural gas production in May reached 81.3 Bcf per day, 13% higher than in May 2017. EIA projects dry natural gas production to increase by 10% in 2018 and by 3% in 2019. The Henry Hub natural gas spot price averaged $2.80/MMBtu in May, the same price as in April.

    Figure 8: Historical ULSD front-month futures price and crack spread

    The difference between the Henry Hub and Tennessee Zone 4 (TZ4) spot prices, which reflect prices in northeast Pennsylvania, narrowed in November 2017 but began widening again in April 2018, falling below -$2/MMBtu before settling at -$1.23/MMBtu on June 4 (Figure 9). The TZ4 to Henry Hub spot price spread tends to narrow during winter months when regional demand is higher and to widen during the summer season when demand is lower. The spread also may be widening because pipeline takeaway capacity is constrained in northeast Pennsylvania. The Atlantic Sunrise project, which will connect producing regions in northeastern Pennsylvania to markets in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and U.S. Southeast, is under construction with an expected start date of mid-2018. Once that project is completed, the TZ4 to Henry Hub spot price spread is likely to narrow.

    Figure 9: Historical front-month U.S. natural gas prices

    The professional consultants at Onyx Power & Gas Consulting are always ahead of the current issues that may affect energy consumption and pricing. Now is the time to partner with an Onyx professional consultant to discuss energy management and secure energy prices based on today’s stable pricing. Volatility in the energy markets makes it too precarious to take chances. Partner with Onyx Power & Gas in Making Energy Make a Difference!

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