Onyx Power and Gas Consulting continues with its weekly series providing the Short-Term Energy Outlook as of December 11, 2018. This series of news articles should provide a complete insight on the current conditions of the energy…enjoy, check out archives and come back each week for additional information on how all sorts of energy sources impact our daily lives.
Notable Forecast Changes
- EIA forecasts Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot prices will average $61 per barrel (b) and $54/b, respectively, in 2019, which are both $11/b lower than in the November STEO. The price of both crude oils fell significantly in November. In previous STEOs, EIA had been forecasting downward price pressures in the coming months. However, the drop in price occurred more quickly than expected and the magnitude was greater than expected. Prices have likely declined to a level that EIA believes will contribute to a roughly balanced oil market in 2019, which EIA expects will keep prices close to current levels on average. Uncertainty exists, though, in the both EIA’s supply and demand outlooks for 2019, and deviations in actual outcomes or market expectations of supply and demand from those forecasted for the coming year could cause daily and monthly averages prices to fluctuate significantly.
- EIA revised downward its forecast of Canadian oil production for 2019 by 0.12 million b/d to reflect Alberta’s announced production cuts on December 3. EIA’s forecast for 2019 is an average of 5.1 million b/d compared with last month’s forecast of 5.2 million b/d.
- On December 3, Qatar submitted to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) a notice of its withdrawal from the organization, effective January 1, 2019. In this STEO, Qatar is included in OPEC supply totals. Beginning with the January 2019 STEO, EIA will list Qatar as a non-OPEC producer.
- EIA forecasts coal production will be 742 million short tons (MMst) in 2019, which is 2% (13 MMst) higher than forecast in the November STEO, and would be a decrease of 3% (20 MMst) from 2018 levels. The increase in the production forecast reflects higher demand for coal in the U.S. electric power sector and in global export markets than expected in the previous STEO.
- For more information, see the detailed table of STEO forecast changes.
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