Our blog post for this Thanksgiving week continues with our series where we broaden our scope to review the global energy outlook from 2010 – 2040. Our weekly blog will be published each Monday.
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This long term outlook of how global dynamics will change the face of energy for the United States and all countries as emerging nations are consuming increasing amounts of energy.
What do we see over the next 30 years? The answer to that question varies by region, reflecting diverse economic and demographic trends as well as the evolution of technology and government policies. This blog will deal with how emissions will impact the global economy and energy supply/demand.
Supply and Technology Part 5
For people and economies to advance, energy supplies must grow to meet their needs. Through 2040, improvements in technology will further expand supplies of oil and keep pace with expected strong growth in demand for natural gas. It should be noted that these technology changes evolve overtime which will increase supplies to meet demands, A global drive toward lower-carbon energy sources also will support strong growth in nuclear and renewable fuels, and the first-ever extended global decline in coal usage.
As technologies advance, the global energy mix will grow more diverse and less carbon-intensive
Considering that 100 years ago, most of the world’s energy came from wood and coal, it is clear that energy supplies can change dramatically over time. While government policies and consumer preferences each play a role in this evolution, the biggest factor is advancements in technology, which shape both demand for energy and the supplies used to meet that demand. Economics and affordability are key factors that enable a fuel to reach the scale needed to penetrate the market.
Over the next 30 years, advances in technology will continue to remake the world’s energy landscape. Fuels will continue to grow less carbon-intensive and more diverse.
Global supplies of two of the world’s most essential fuels – oil and natural gas – will be expanded through the ongoing application of new technologies, including advancements in unconventional and deep-water production. By 2040, oil, gas and coal will continue to account for about 80 percent of the world’s energy demand. The scale and affordability of these fuels position them to be the major long-term supplies over the next several decades.
Nuclear energy, one of the most significant energy breakthroughs of the last century, also will see strong growth through 2040. The expansion of nuclear energy will be encouraged by a desire to reduce emissions, but also by new technologies that can strengthen confidence in the safety of nuclear power.
At the same time, the world will see meaningful growth in renewable fuels. The largest contribution will be from wind, but growth also will be seen in solar, biofuels and geothermal energy. Advances in technology will be necessary to make these fuels more practical and economic, increasing their penetration in consumer markets. By 2040, modern renewable fuels are expected to account for about 7 percent of global energy demand, compared to 3 percent in 2010.
Ensuring that there is adequate energy to meet the growth and demand for energy is very important, new technology is crucial to provide the needed supply. Naturally, the future is subject to any number of developments that we cannot predict with precision.
For one, the cost-of-CO2 policies that we expect will exert such a strong influence on energy trends through 2040 are, in many countries, not finalized; their details will have a critical impact on the economics of energy consumption and the future fuel mix. Unexpected economic or geopolitical events might also have significant impacts on energy supply and demand.
Technology also can be unpredictable. For example, a breakthrough in low-cost, large-scale storage of electricity would greatly improve the prospect for wind and solar for electricity generation. Faster-than-expected drops in battery costs would likely make electric cars more of a factor through 2040 than we expect them to be. And, of course, new combinations of existing technologies can result in significant changes, such as we are seeing today with unconventional gas production.
When it comes to energy, the future is not predetermined. How much and what types of energy the world will use through 2040 – and beyond – will depend on the actions taken by companies and by everyone – including policymakers and consumers. The professional consultants at Onyx Power & Gas Consultant are always ahead of the current issues that may affect energy consumption and pricing. Now is the time to partner with an Onyx professional consultant to discuss energy management and secure energy prices based on today’s stable pricing. Volatility in the energy markets makes it too precarious to take chances. Partner with Onyx Power & Gas in Making Energy Make a Difference!
Information for this blog was sourced from: 2012 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 by ExxonMobil