Notable Forecast Changes – Short-Term Energy Outlook

Onyx Power and Gas Consulting continues with its weekly series providing the Short-Term Energy Outlook as of December 11, 2018.  This series of news articles should provide a complete insight on the current conditions of the energy…enjoy, check out archives and come back each week for additional information on how all sorts of energy sources impact our daily lives.

Notable Forecast Changes

  • EIA forecasts Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot prices will average $61 per barrel (b) and $54/b, respectively, in 2019, which are both $11/b lower than in the November STEO. The price of both crude oils fell significantly in November. In previous STEOs, EIA had been forecasting downward price pressures in the coming months. However, the drop in price occurred more quickly than expected and the magnitude was greater than expected. Prices have likely declined to a level that EIA believes will contribute to a roughly balanced oil market in 2019, which EIA expects will keep prices close to current levels on average. Uncertainty exists, though, in the both EIA’s supply and demand outlooks for 2019, and deviations in actual outcomes or market expectations of supply and demand from those forecasted for the coming year could cause daily and monthly averages prices to fluctuate significantly.
  • EIA revised downward its forecast of Canadian oil production for 2019 by 0.12 million b/d to reflect Alberta’s announced production cuts on December 3. EIA’s forecast for 2019 is an average of 5.1 million b/d compared with last month’s forecast of 5.2 million b/d.
  • On December 3, Qatar submitted to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) a notice of its withdrawal from the organization, effective January 1, 2019. In this STEO, Qatar is included in OPEC supply totals. Beginning with the January 2019 STEO, EIA will list Qatar as a non-OPEC producer.
  • EIA forecasts coal production will be 742 million short tons (MMst) in 2019, which is 2% (13 MMst) higher than forecast in the November STEO, and would be a decrease of 3% (20 MMst) from 2018 levels. The increase in the production forecast reflects higher demand for coal in the U.S. electric power sector and in global export markets than expected in the previous STEO.
  • For more information, see the detailed table of STEO forecast changes.

The professional consultants at Onyx Power & Gas Consulting are always ahead of the current issues that may affect energy consumption and pricing. Now is the time to partner with an Onyx professional consultant to discuss energy management and secure energy prices based on today’s stable pricing. Volatility in the energy markets makes it too precarious to take chances. Partner with Onyx Power & Gas in Making Energy Make a Difference!

Posted in Clean Energy, CO2, Community Improvement, Consulting, Crude Oil, Crude Oil Prices, Drilling, Electricity, Electricity Prices, Emmissions, Energy, Energy Consumption, Energy Deregulation, Energy Prices, Environment, Fuel, Fuels, Gas, Generation, Green Energy, Natural Gas, Natural Gas Prices, OECD, Oil, Press Releases, Services, Shale Gas, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Renewables and Carbon Dioxide Emissions – Short-Term Energy Outlook

Onyx Power and Gas Consulting continues with its weekly series providing the Short-Term Energy Outlook as of December 11, 2018.  This series of news articles should provide a complete insight on the current conditions of the energy…enjoy, check out archives and come back each week for additional information on how all sorts of energy sources impact our daily lives.

Renewables and Carbon Dioxide Emissions

  • EIA expects average U.S. solar generation will rise from 212,000 megawatt hours per day (MWh/d) in 2017 to 268,000 MWh/d in 2018 (an increase of 27%) and to 303,000 MWh/d in 2019 (an increase of 13%). In recent years, the industry has seen a shift from fixed-tilt solar PV systems to tracking systems.. Although tracking systems are more expensive than fixed-tilt systems, revenue from the additional electricity generated by following the path of the sun across the sky often exceeds the increased cost.
  • After declining by 0.8% in 2017, EIA forecasts that U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will rise by 3.0% in 2018. This increase largely reflects more natural gas consumption in 2018 for heating during a colder winter and for electric generation to support more cooling during a warmer summer than in 2017. EIA expects emissions to decline by 1.2% in 2019 because it forecasts that temperatures will return to near normal. Energy-related CO2 emissions are sensitive to changes in weather, economic growth, energy prices, and fuel mix.
U.S. renewable energy supply
U.S. carbon dioxide emissions growth

The professional consultants at Onyx Power & Gas Consulting are always ahead of the current issues that may affect energy consumption and pricing. Now is the time to partner with an Onyx professional consultant to discuss energy management and secure energy prices based on today’s stable pricing. Volatility in the energy markets makes it too precarious to take chances. Partner with Onyx Power & Gas in Making Energy Make a Difference!

Posted in CO2, Community Improvement, Consulting, Crude Oil, Crude Oil Prices, Drilling, Electricity, Electricity Prices, Emmissions, Energy, Energy Consumption, Energy Deregulation, Energy Prices, Environment, Fuel, Fuels, Gas, Generation, Natural Gas, Natural Gas Prices, OECD, Oil, Press Releases, Services, Shale Gas, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Electricity – Short-Term Outlook

Onyx Power and Gas Consulting continues with its weekly series providing the Short-Term Energy Outlook as of December 11, 2018.  This series of news articles should provide a complete insight on the current conditions of the energy…enjoy, check out archives and come back each week for additional information on how all sorts of energy sources impact our daily lives.

Electricity

  • EIA expects the share of U.S. total utility-scale electricity generation from natural gas-fired power plants to rise from 32% in 2017 to 35% in 2018 and in 2019. EIA forecasts that the electricity generation share from coal will average 28% in 2018 and 26% in 2019, down from 30% in 2017. The nuclear share of generation was 20% in 2017 and EIA forecasts that it will average about 19% in 2018 and in 2019. Wind, solar, and other nonhydropower renewables provided about 10% of electricity generation in 2017. EIA expects them to provide 10% in 2018 and 11% in 2019. The generation share of hydropower was 7% in 2017, and EIA forecasts that it will be about the same in 2018 and in 2019.
  • EIA expects average U.S. solar generation will rise from 212,000 megawatt hours per day (MWh/d) in 2017 to 268,000 MWh/d in 2018 (an increase of 27%) and to 303,000 MWh/d in 2019 (an increase of 13%). In recent years, the industry has seen a shift from fixed-tilt solar PV systems to tracking systems.. Although tracking systems are more expensive than fixed-tilt systems, revenue from the additional electricity generated by following the path of the sun across the sky often exceeds the increased cost.
U.S. electricity consumption
U.S. electricity generation
U.S. electricity prices

The professional consultants at Onyx Power & Gas Consulting are always ahead of the current issues that may affect energy consumption and pricing. Now is the time to partner with an Onyx professional consultant to discuss energy management and secure energy prices based on today’s stable pricing. Volatility in the energy markets makes it too precarious to take chances. Partner with Onyx Power & Gas in Making Energy Make a Difference!

Posted in CO2, Community Improvement, Consulting, Crude Oil, Crude Oil Prices, Drilling, Electricity, Electricity Prices, Emmissions, Energy, Energy Consumption, Energy Deregulation, Energy Prices, Environment, Fuel, Fuels, Gas, Generation, Natural Gas, Natural Gas Prices, OECD, Oil, Press Releases, Services, Shale Gas, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Coal – Short-Term Energy Outlook

Onyx Power and Gas Consulting continues with its weekly series providing the Short-Term Energy Outlook as of December 11, 2018.  This series of news articles should provide a complete insight on the current conditions of the energy…enjoy, check out archives and come back each week for additional information on how all sorts of energy sources impact our daily lives.

Coal

  • U.S. coal exports for the first nine months of 2018 totaled 87 million short tons (MMst), compared with 69 MMst exported during the same period in 2017. In July and September 2018, exports of steam coal (used for generating electricity) exceeded exports of metallurgical coal (used for producing steel). Before July 2018, the last month that this occurred was in February 2015. EIA expects coal exports to total 113 MMst in 2018 and 102 MMst in 2019. EIA expects U.S. coal production will total 762 MMst in 2018 (down 2% from 2017) and 742 MMst in 2019 (down 3% from 2018).
U.S. coal production
U.S. electric power sector coal stocks
U.S. coal consumption

The professional consultants at Onyx Power & Gas Consulting are always ahead of the current issues that may affect energy consumption and pricing. Now is the time to partner with an Onyx professional consultant to discuss energy management and secure energy prices based on today’s stable pricing. Volatility in the energy markets makes it too precarious to take chances. Partner with Onyx Power & Gas in Making Energy Make a Difference!

Posted in CO2, Community Improvement, Consulting, Crude Oil, Crude Oil Prices, Drilling, Electricity, Electricity Prices, Emmissions, Energy, Energy Consumption, Energy Deregulation, Energy Prices, Environment, Fuel, Fuels, Gas, Generation, Natural Gas, Natural Gas Prices, OECD, Oil, Press Releases, Services, Shale Gas, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Natural Gas – Short-Term Energy Outlook

Onyx Power and Gas Consulting continues with its weekly series providing the Short-Term Energy Outlook as of December 11, 2018.  This series of news articles should provide a complete insight on the current conditions of the energy…enjoy, check out archives and come back each week for additional information on how all sorts of energy sources impact our daily lives.

Natural Gas

  • The Henry Hub natural gas spot price averaged $4.15/million British thermal units (MMBtu) in November, up $0.87/MMBtu from the October average. Cold temperatures and low inventory levels contributed to the increase in price. Despite low inventory levels, EIA expects strong growth in U.S. natural gas production to put downward pressure on prices in 2019. EIA expects Henry Hub natural gas spot prices to average $3.11/MMBtu in 2019, down 6 cents from the 2018 average and down from a forecast average price of $3.88/MMBtu in the fourth quarter of 2018. NYMEX futures and options contract values for March 2019 delivery traded during the five-day period ending December 6, 2018, suggest a range of $1.85/MMBtu to $8.37/MMBtu encompasses the market expectation for March Henry Hub natural gas prices at the 95% confidence level.
  • EIA estimates that U.S. natural gas storage inventories were 3.0 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) at the end of November, which was 19% lower than the five-year (2013–17) average for the end of November.
  • EIA forecasts that dry natural gas production will average 83.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2018, up 8.5 Bcf/d from 2017. Both the level and volume growth of natural gas production in 2018 would establish new records. EIA expects natural gas production will continue to rise in 2019 to an average of 90.0 Bcf/d.
U.S. natural gas consumption
U.S. natural gas balance
U.S. marketed natural gas production
U.S. natural gas trade
U.S. working natural gas in storage

The professional consultants at Onyx Power & Gas Consulting are always ahead of the current issues that may affect energy consumption and pricing. Now is the time to partner with an Onyx professional consultant to discuss energy management and secure energy prices based on today’s stable pricing. Volatility in the energy markets makes it too precarious to take chances. Partner with Onyx Power & Gas in Making Energy Make a Difference!

Posted in CO2, Community Improvement, Consulting, Crude Oil, Crude Oil Prices, Drilling, Electricity, Electricity Prices, Emmissions, Energy, Energy Consumption, Energy Deregulation, Energy Prices, Environment, Fuel, Fuels, Gas, Generation, Natural Gas, Natural Gas Prices, OECD, Oil, Press Releases, Services, Shale Gas, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

U.S. Liquid Fuels – Short-Term Energy Outlook

Onyx Power and Gas Consulting continues with its weekly series providing the Short-Term Energy Outlook as of December 11, 2018.  This series of news articles should provide a complete insight on the current conditions of the energy…enjoy, check out archives and come back each week for additional information on how all sorts of energy sources impact our daily lives.

U.S. Liquid Fuels

  • EIA expects Brent spot prices will average $61 in 2019 and that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices will average about $7/b lower than Brent prices next year. NYMEX WTI futures and options contract values for March 2019 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending December 6, 2018, suggest a range of $36/b to $77/b encompasses the market expectation for March WTI prices at the 95% confidence level.
  • EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production averaged 11.5 million barrels per day (b/d) in November, up 150,000 b/d from October levels because of platforms resuming normal operations after hurricane-related outages in October. EIA expects that U.S. crude oil production will average 10.9 million b/d in 2018, up from 9.4 million b/d in 2017, and will average 12.1 million b/d in 2019.
U.S. liquid fuels product supplied growth
U.S. Hydrocarbon gas liquids product supplied growth
U.S. crude oil production
U.S. commercial crude oil stocks
U.S. liquid fuels production growth
U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories

The professional consultants at Onyx Power & Gas Consulting are always ahead of the current issues that may affect energy consumption and pricing. Now is the time to partner with an Onyx professional consultant to discuss energy management and secure energy prices based on today’s stable pricing. Volatility in the energy markets makes it too precarious to take chances. Partner with Onyx Power & Gas in Making Energy Make a Difference!

Posted in CO2, Community Improvement, Consulting, Crude Oil, Crude Oil Prices, Drilling, Electricity, Electricity Prices, Emmissions, Energy, Energy Deregulation, Energy Prices, Environment, Fuel, Fuels, Gas, Generation, Natural Gas, Natural Gas Prices, OECD, Oil, Press Releases, Services, Shale Gas | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Global Liquid Fuels – Short-Term Energy Outlook

Onyx Power and Gas Consulting continues with its weekly series providing the Short-Term Energy Outlook as of December 11, 2018.  This series of news articles should provide a complete insight on the current conditions of the energy…enjoy, check out archives and come back each week for additional information on how all sorts of energy sources impact our daily lives.

Global Liquid Fuels

  • Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $65 per barrel (b) in November, down $16/b from October, the largest monthly average price decline since December 2014.
  • EIA expects Brent spot prices will average $61 in 2019 and that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices will average about $7/b lower than Brent prices next year. NYMEX WTI futures and options contract values for March 2019 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending December 6, 2018, suggest a range of $36/b to $77/b encompasses the market expectation for March WTI prices at the 95% confidence level.
  • EIA forecasts total global liquid fuels inventories will increase by about 0.3 million b/d in 2018 and by 0.2 million b/d in 2019. Global liquid fuels production is forecast to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2019. EIA expects production growth in the United to be partially offset by declining production elsewhere, notably in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), where EIA forecasts that liquid fuels production will declinesby 0.9 million b/d in 2019. EIA expects global liquid fuels consumption to increase by 1.5 million b/d in 2019, with growth largely coming from China, the United States, and India.
World liquid fuels production and consumption balance
World liquid fuels consumption
World liquid fuels consumption growth
World liquid fuels production and consumption balance
Estimated unplanned crude oil production among OPEC and non-OPEC producers
OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity
OECD commercial stocks of crude oil and other liquids (days of supply)

The professional consultants at Onyx Power & Gas Consulting are always ahead of the current issues that may affect energy consumption and pricing. Now is the time to partner with an Onyx professional consultant to discuss energy management and secure energy prices based on today’s stable pricing. Volatility in the energy markets makes it too precarious to take chances. Partner with Onyx Power & Gas in Making Energy Make a Difference!

Posted in CO2, Community Improvement, Consulting, Crude Oil, Crude Oil Prices, Drilling, Electricity, Electricity Prices, Emmissions, Energy, Energy Consumption, Energy Deregulation, Energy Prices, Environment, Fuel, Fuels, Gas, Generation, Natural Gas, Natural Gas Prices, OECD, Oil, Press Releases, Services, Shale Gas | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Prices – Short-Term Energy Outlook

Onyx Power and Gas Consulting continues with its weekly series providing the Short-Term Energy Outlook as of December 11, 2018.  This series of news articles should provide a complete insight on the current conditions of the energy…enjoy, check out archives and come back each week for additional information on how all sorts of energy sources impact our daily lives.

Prices

  • Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $65 per barrel (b) in November, down $16/b from October, the largest monthly average price decline since December 2014.
  • EIA expects Brent spot prices will average $61 in 2019 and that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices will average about $7/b lower than Brent prices next year. NYMEX WTI futures and options contract values for March 2019 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending December 6, 2018, suggest a range of $36/b to $77/b encompasses the market expectation for March WTI prices at the 95% confidence level.
  • The Henry Hub natural gas spot price averaged $4.15/million British thermal units (MMBtu) in November, up $0.87/MMBtu from the October average. Cold temperatures and low inventory levels contributed to the increase in price. Despite low inventory levels, EIA expects strong growth in U.S. natural gas production to put downward pressure on prices in 2019. EIA expects Henry Hub natural gas spot prices to average $3.11/MMBtu in 2019, down 6 cents from the 2018 average and down from a forecast average price of $3.88/MMBtu in the fourth quarter of 2018. NYMEX futures and options contract values for March 2019 delivery traded during the five-day period ending December 6, 2018, suggest a range of $1.85/MMBtu to $8.37/MMBtu encompasses the market expectation for March Henry Hub natural gas prices at the 95% confidence level.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price
U.S. gasoline and crude oil prices
U.S. diesel fuel and crude oil prices
Henry Hub natural gas price
U.S. natural gas prices
U.S. residential electricity price

The professional consultants at Onyx Power & Gas Consulting are always ahead of the current issues that may affect energy consumption and pricing. Now is the time to partner with an Onyx professional consultant to discuss energy management and secure energy prices based on today’s stable pricing. Volatility in the energy markets makes it too precarious to take chances. Partner with Onyx Power & Gas in Making Energy Make a Difference!

Posted in CO2, Community Improvement, Consulting, Crude Oil, Crude Oil Prices, Drilling, Electricity, Electricity Prices, Emmissions, Energy, Energy Consumption, Energy Deregulation, Energy Prices, Environment, Fuel, Fuels, Gas, Generation, Natural Gas, Natural Gas Prices, OECD, Oil, Press Releases, Services, Shale Gas | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Forecast Highlights – Short-Term Energy Outlook

Onyx Power and Gas Consulting continues with its weekly series providing the Short-Term Energy Outlook as of December 11, 2018.  This series of news articles should provide a complete insight on the current conditions of the energy…enjoy, check out archives and come back each week for additional information on how all sorts of energy sources impact our daily lives.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price

World liquid fuels production and consumption balance
U.S. natural gas prices
U.S. residential electricity price

Forecast Highlights

Global liquid fuels

  • Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $65 per barrel (b) in November, down $16/b from October, the largest monthly average price decline since December 2014.
  • EIA expects Brent spot prices will average $61 in 2019 and that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices will average about $7/b lower than Brent prices next year. NYMEX WTI futures and options contract values for March 2019 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending December 6, 2018, suggest a range of $36/b to $77/b encompasses the market expectation for March WTI prices at the 95% confidence level.
  • EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production averaged 11.5 million barrels per day (b/d) in November, up 150,000 b/d from October levels because of platforms resuming normal operations after hurricane-related outages in October. EIA expects that U.S. crude oil production will average 10.9 million b/d in 2018, up from 9.4 million b/d in 2017, and will average 12.1 million b/d in 2019.
  • EIA forecasts total global liquid fuels inventories will increase by about 0.3 million b/d in 2018 and by 0.2 million b/d in 2019. Global liquid fuels production is forecast to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2019. EIA expects production growth in the United States to be partially offset by declining production elsewhere, notably in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), where EIA forecasts that liquid fuels production will decline by 0.9 million b/d in 2019. EIA expects global liquid fuels consumption to increase by 1.5 million b/d in 2019, with growth largely coming from China, the United States, and India.

Natural Gas

  • The Henry Hub natural gas spot price averaged $4.15/million British thermal units (MMBtu) in November, up $0.87/MMBtu from the October average. Cold temperatures and low inventory levels contributed to the increase in price. Despite low inventory levels, EIA expects strong growth in U.S. natural gas production to put downward pressure on prices in 2019. EIA expects Henry Hub natural gas spot prices to average $3.11/MMBtu in 2019, down 6 cents from the 2018 average and down from a forecast average price of $3.88/MMBtu in the fourth quarter of 2018. NYMEX futures and options contract values for March 2019 delivery traded during the five-day period ending December 6, 2018, suggest a range of $1.85/MMBtu to $8.37/MMBtu encompasses the market expectation for March Henry Hub natural gas prices at the 95% confidence level.
  • EIA estimates that U.S. natural gas storage inventories were 3.0 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) at the end of November, which was 19% lower than the five-year (2013–17) average for the end of November.
  • EIA forecasts that dry natural gas production will average 83.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2018, up 8.5 Bcf/d from 2017. Both the level and volume growth of natural gas production in 2018 would establish new records. EIA expects natural gas production will continue to rise in 2019 to an average of 90.0 Bcf/d.

Electricity, coal, renewables, and emissions

  • EIA expects the share of U.S. total utility-scale electricity generation from natural gas-fired power plants to rise from 32% in 2017 to 35% in 2018 and in 2019. EIA forecasts that the electricity generation share from coal will average 28% in 2018 and 26% in 2019, down from 30% in 2017. The nuclear share of generation was 20% in 2017 and EIA forecasts that it will average about 19% in 2018 and in 2019. Wind, solar, and other nonhydropower renewables provided about 10% of electricity generation in 2017. EIA expects them to provide 10% in 2018 and 11% in 2019. The generation share of hydropower was 7% in 2017, and EIA forecasts that it will be about the same in 2018 and in 2019.
  • EIA expects average U.S. solar generation will rise from 212,000 megawatt hours per day (MWh/d) in 2017 to 268,000 MWh/d in 2018 (an increase of 27%) and to 303,000 MWh/d in 2019 (an increase of 13%). In recent years, the industry has seen a shift from fixed-tilt solar PV systems to tracking systems.. Although tracking systems are more expensive than fixed-tilt systems, revenue from the additional electricity generated by following the path of the sun across the sky often exceeds the increased cost.
  • U.S. coal exports for the first nine months of 2018 totaled 87 million short tons (MMst), compared with 69 MMst exported during the same period in 2017. In July and September 2018, exports of steam coal (used for generating electricity) exceeded exports of metallurgical coal (used for producing steel). Before July 2018, the last month that this occurred was in February 2015. EIA expects coal exports to total 113 MMst in 2018 and 102 MMst in 2019. EIA expects U.S. coal production will total 762 MMst in 2018 (down 2% from 2017) and 742 MMst in 2019 (down 3% from 2018).
  • After declining by 0.8% in 2017, EIA forecasts that U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will rise by 3.0% in 2018. This increase largely reflects more natural gas consumption in 2018 for heating during a colder winter and for electric generation to support more cooling during a warmer summer than in 2017. EIA expects emissions to decline by 1.2% in 2019 because it forecasts that temperatures will return to near normal. Energy-related CO2 emissions are sensitive to changes in weather, economic growth, energy prices, and fuel mix.

The professional consultants at Onyx Power & Gas Consulting are always ahead of the current issues that may affect energy consumption and pricing. Now is the time to partner with an Onyx professional consultant to discuss energy management and secure energy prices based on today’s stable pricing. Volatility in the energy markets makes it too precarious to take chances. Partner with Onyx Power & Gas in Making Energy Make a Difference!

Posted in CO2, Community Improvement, Consulting, Crude Oil, Crude Oil Prices, Drilling, Electricity, Electricity Prices, Emmissions, Energy, Energy Consumption, Energy Deregulation, Energy Prices, Environment, Fuel, Fuels, Gas, Generation, Natural Gas, Natural Gas Prices, OECD, Oil, Press Releases, Services, Shale Gas | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Natural Gas Markets – Short-Term Energy Outlook

Onyx Power and Gas Consulting continues with its weekly series providing the Short-Term Energy Outlook as of December 11, 2018.  This series of news articles should provide a complete insight on the current conditions of the energy…enjoy, check out archives and come back each week for additional information on how all sorts of energy sources impact our daily lives.

Natural Gas

Prices: The front-month natural gas futures contract for delivery at the Henry Hub settled at $2.77/million British thermal units (MMBtu) on September 6, an increase of 1 cent/MMBtu from August 1 (Figure 9). The Henry Hub natural gas spot price averaged $2.96/MMBtu in August, 12 cents/MMBtu higher than in July. Cooling degree days (CDD) in the United States averaged 13% higher than the 10-year (2008–17) average in August, which contributed to high natural gas demand for power generation.

Figure 9: Natural gas front-month futures prices and actual minus historical average HDD and CDD

U.S. natural gas inventory: Natural gas inventories have been low compared with the five-year (2013–17) average during most of 2018. The low inventory levels reflect high residential and commercial consumption in early 2018 and growth in both liquefied natural gas and pipeline exports over the past year. High natural gas use for electric power generation during July and August also likely slowed the pace of inventory injections. EIA estimates that working gas in underground storage at the end of August totaled 2,606 Bcf, which is 577 billion cubic feet (Bcf), or 18%, lower than the five-year average at the end of August.

The end of October is typically considered the end of the natural gas storage injection season, although injections often occur into the first weeks of November. EIA forecasts that inventories will rise to 3,308 Bcf at the end of October, which would be the lowest end-of-October natural gas inventory level since 2005 (Figure 10). Despite low inventory levels, price increases have been moderate. Significant month-over-month production growth in 2018 helped keep futures prices lower than $3/MMBtu for most of the summer. Total U.S. dry natural gas production reached an estimated 82.2 billion cubic feet per day in August. Implied volatility, which is based on futures and options, has also remained low, indicating lower expectations by market participants for large price increases in the near future.

Figure 10: Increase in U.S. natural gas inventory from August to October

The professional consultants at Onyx Power & Gas Consulting are always ahead of the current issues that may affect energy consumption and pricing. Now is the time to partner with an Onyx professional consultant to discuss energy management and secure energy prices based on today’s stable pricing. Volatility in the energy markets makes it too precarious to take chances. Partner with Onyx Power & Gas in Making Energy Make a Difference!

Posted in CO2, Community Improvement, Consulting, Crude Oil, Crude Oil Prices, Drilling, Electricity, Electricity Prices, Emmissions, Energy, Energy Consumption, Energy Deregulation, Energy Prices, Environment, Fuel, Fuels, Gas, Generation, Natural Gas, Natural Gas Prices, OECD, Oil, Press Releases, Services, Shale Gas | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment