Onyx Power and Gas Consulting continues a weekly series providing the Short Term Energy Outlook as of March 8th 2016. This series of news articles should provide a complete insight on the current conditions of the energy…enjoy, check out archives and come back each week for additional information on how all sorts of energy sources impact our daily lives.
U.S. Economic Assumptions
Recent Economic Indicators
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that real GDP increased at an annual rate of 1.0% in the fourth quarter of 2015, up from the initial estimate of 0.7%. The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures, residential fixed investment, and federal government spending.
EIA used the February 2016 version of the IHS macroeconomic model with EIA’s energy price forecasts as model inputs to develop the economic projections in the STEO.
Production, Income, and Employment
Forecast real GDP growth is 2.2% in 2016-below the 2.5% forecast in last month’s STEO-and 2.8% in 2017. Real disposable income grows by 3.0% in both years. Total industrial production falls by 0.8% in 2016, but rises by 2.8% in 2017. Projected growth in nonfarm employment averages 1.6% in 2016 and 1.0% in 2017.
Forecast private real fixed investment growth averages 3.8% and 5.6% in 2016 and 2017, respectively. Real consumption expenditures grow faster than real GDP in 2016, at 2.7%, and at 3.0% in 2017. Durable goods expenditures drive consumption spending in both years. Export growth is 1.9% and 5.3% over the same two years, while import growth is 3.1% in 2016 and 6.4% in 2017. Total government expenditures rise 2.1% in 2016 and 0.4% in 2017.