Onyx Power and Gas Consulting continues with its weekly series providing the Short-Term Energy Outlook as of August 6, 2019. This series of news articles should provide a complete insight on the current conditions of the energy…enjoy, check out archives and come back each week for additional information on how all sorts of energy sources impact our daily lives.
U.S. Economic Assumptions and Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions
Recent Economic Indicators. EIA used the July 2019 version of the IHS Markit macroeconomic model with EIA’s energy price forecasts as model inputs to develop the economic forecasts in STEO. Using the IHS Markit model, EIA forecasts real gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 2.6% in 2019 and by 1.8% in 2020, compared with 2.9% growth in 2018.
Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions. EIA forecasts that, after rising by 2.7% in 2018, U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will decline by 2.3% in 2019 and by 0.5% in 2020. In 2019, EIA forecasts that space cooling demand (as measured in cooling degree days) will be lower than in 2018, when it was 13% higher than the previous 10-year (2008–17) average. In addition, in 2019, EIA expects U.S. CO2 emissions to decline because the forecast share of electricity generated from natural gas and renewables is increasing while the forecast share generated from coal, which is a more carbon-intensive energy source, is decreasing. EIA’s projected emissions decline is lower in 2020 than in 2019 because it forecasts that both heating and cooling requirements will be slightly lower than normal. At the same time, the forecast coal share of generation will remain about the same as in 2019 while the natural gas share declines. Although EIA forecasts that generation from renewables will continue to increase in 2020, a forecast decrease in nuclear power offsets 24% of the renewables’ gain.
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