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U.S. Economic Assumptions and Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions
Recent Economic Indicators.
- EIA used the February 2019 version of the IHS Markit macroeconomic model with EIA’s energy price forecasts as model inputs to develop the economic forecasts in STEO. Using the IHS Markit model, EIA forecasts real GDP to grow by 2.5% in 2019 and by 2.0% in 2020, compared with 2.9% growth in 2018.
Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions.
- After rising by 2.9% in 2018, EIA forecasts that U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will decline by 1.6% in 2019 and by 0.5% in 2020. The 2018 increase largely reflected increased weather-related natural gas use because of additional heating needs during a colder winter and for higher electric generation to support more summer cooling use than in 2017. EIA expects emissions to fall in 2019 and in 2020 because of forecasted temperatures that will return to near normal and natural gas and renewables making up a higher share of electricity generation. Energy-related CO2 emissions are sensitive to changes in weather, economic growth, energy prices, and fuel mix.
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